Market Indicators — Summary

A quick-reference snapshot of the market indicators. For the full breakdown of each indicator, read the complete write-up.

Summary Table — Updated September 2026

Indicator Aug 2026 Sep 2026 Signal
FMS Cash 3.6% 3.5% ¹ Sell (cash ≤4%)
AAII Bullish 34.7% 32.9% Bearish (below hist. avg)
M2 Growth 5.5% YoY 5.4% YoY ² Bullish (expanding)
Buffett Indicator 243% 238% Overvalued (off the high)
CAPE 42.56 41.74 Elevated (near 1999 peak)
Fear & Greed 65 44 Fear (round-trip from Greed)
Unemployment 4.1% 4.1% ³ Steady (no new print)
Inflation 3.3% 3.3% ³ Above target (no new print)
Misery Index 7.4 7.4 ³ Comfortable (below 8)
Yield Curve 10-2 0.51 spread 0.40 spread Normal (flatter, still positive)
HY Spreads 271 bps 263 bps Tight/calm (below 300)
OFR Stress -2.74 -3.03 Calm (well below zero)
Breadth (% >200MA) ~73% ~63% Weakening (below 70%)
GDP Growth 1.5% (Q2 actual) 4.8% (Q3 est.) ⁴ Above trend (early estimate)
Fiscal Deficit 6.1% of GDP 6.1% of GDP ⁵ Elevated (no new print)
Current Account 2.8% GDP 2.8% GDP ⁶ Wide (Q1 vintage)

¹ August 2026 BofA survey, fielded Aug 7–13 · ² July 2026 data · ³ July 2026 data, unchanged since the last update — August jobs report due Sep 4, August CPI due Sep 10 · ⁴ Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q3 as of Sep 1, not a BEA print; Q2 actual was 1.5% · ⁵ 12-month rolling deficit through July 2026 — August Treasury statement due mid-September · ⁶ Q1 2026 data — Q2 release due Sep 19

September 2026 Update: Positioning and market internals are pulling in opposite directions. BofA's August survey put fund manager cash at 3.5%, among the lowest readings since the survey began and a firm contrarian sell — yet the market underneath has thinned out. Breadth fell from ~73% to roughly 63% of S&P 500 names above their 200-day average, back below the healthy threshold, and the Fear & Greed Index round-tripped from 65 (Greed) to 44 (Fear) in a fortnight. AAII bulls slid further to 32.9%. Valuations eased only slightly, CAPE to 41.74 and the Buffett Indicator to 238%. Credit refuses to corroborate any of the anxiety: high-yield spreads tightened to 263 bps and OFR stress fell to -3.03. The macro read is unresolved — GDPNow has Q3 tracking at 4.8%, an early and volatile estimate, set against a July payrolls print that fell 23,000 and labor and inflation data that have not refreshed since.

Sources

Federal Reserve (FRED)

Sentiment & valuation

Stress & fiscal

Retrieved 2 September 2026. CNN's Fear & Greed page, aaii.com, GuruFocus and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow page all block automated access; the Fear & Greed and AAII readings were taken from published secondary reports of the same figures, and the GDPNow estimate was read from the FRED GDPNOW series instead. No row was left unretrieved this run, but the unemployment, inflation, Misery Index, fiscal deficit and current account rows carry the vintages footnoted above rather than new prints.