Market Indicators — Summary
A quick-reference snapshot of the market indicators. For the full breakdown of each indicator, read the complete write-up.
Summary Table — Updated October 2026
| Indicator | Sep 16 2026 | Oct 22 2026 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| FMS Cash | 3.9% | 3.9% ¹ | Sell (still below 4%) |
| AAII Bullish | 38.0% | 36.9% | Neutral (just below hist. avg; bears 45.8%) |
| M2 Growth | 5.4% YoY | 5.7% YoY ² | Bullish (expanding, faster) |
| Buffett Indicator | 235% | 235% ³ | Overvalued (flat) |
| CAPE | 40.71 | 40.58 | Elevated (still above 40) |
| Fear & Greed | 28 | 28 ⁴ | Fear (lingering) |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | 4.2% | Steady (September print, ticked up) |
| Inflation | 3.4% | 3.7% | Above target (accelerating) |
| Misery Index | 7.5 | 7.9 | Comfortable (just below 8) |
| Yield Curve 10-2 | 0.33 spread | 0.31 spread | Normal (flatter, still positive) |
| HY Spreads | 271 bps | 327 bps | Widening (above 300) |
| OFR Stress | -2.46 | -1.88 | Calm (below zero, rising) |
| Breadth (% >200MA) | ~57% | ~55% ⁵ | Narrow (well below 70%) |
| GDP Growth | 4.4% (Q3 est.) | 3.5% (Q3 est.) ⁶ | Above trend (early estimate) |
| Fiscal Deficit | 5.5% of GDP | 6.2% of GDP ⁷ | Elevated (wider) |
| Current Account | 2.8% GDP | 3.0% GDP ⁸ | Wide (Q2 vintage) |
¹ October 2026 BofA survey (fielded Oct 2–8), unchanged from September · ² August 2026 data — September M2 not yet released · ³ GuruFocus market-cap-to-GDP, Oct 20, the same basis as the prior column · ⁴ CNN reading of Oct 22 via a secondary report; third-party trackers put the index anywhere from 18 to 31 this week, and it touched Extreme Fear (18) on Oct 16 · ⁵ Oct 21; provider estimates for S&P 500 breadth ranged ~48–55% this week · ⁶ Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q3 from the FRED GDPNOW series, retrieved Oct 23 (the Atlanta Fed's Oct 15 update was 3.6%); not a BEA print — the advance estimate is due Oct 29; Q2 actual is now 2.2% · ⁷ Full fiscal year 2026 (the 12 months through September, the same basis as the prior column's rolling figure), per CBO's September Monthly Budget Review of Oct 8 · ⁸ Q2 2026, computed from BEA's current-account balance and nominal GDP on FRED; on the same revised data Q1 is now 2.7%, not the 2.8% shown in the prior column
October 2026 Update: The stress that had been confined to the tape has started to reach credit. High-yield spreads widened from 271 to 327 bps — through the 300 bps line for the first time on this page — and the OFR stress index climbed from -2.46 to -1.88, still calm but moving the wrong way. Sentiment never recovered: CNN's Fear & Greed sits at 28 after a dip to Extreme Fear in mid-October, and AAII bears jumped to 45.8%. The S&P 500 itself is about 3% higher than in mid-September, but only around 55% of its names sit above their 200-day average. The macro picture has cooled and heated in the wrong places — September payrolls added just 29,000 and unemployment ticked to 4.2%, while headline inflation accelerated to 3.7% and pushed the Misery Index to 7.9, a breath under 8. Q3 growth still tracks near 3.5% ahead of the Oct 29 advance estimate, and fiscal year 2026 closed with a deficit of about $2.0 trillion, 6.2% of GDP — September undid August's timing-driven narrowing. Fund managers held cash at 3.9%, so BofA's contrarian sell signal stays live.
Sources
Federal Reserve (FRED)
- M2 money stock — M2SL
- Unemployment rate — UNRATE
- Consumer Price Index — CPIAUCSL
- 10Y-2Y Treasury spread — T10Y2Y
- High-yield option-adjusted spread — BAMLH0A0HYM2
- Real GDP growth rate — A191RL1Q225SBEA
- GDPNow — GDPNOW
- Balance on current account — IEABC
- Nominal GDP — GDP
- Nonfarm payrolls — PAYEMS
- S&P 500 index level — SP500
Sentiment & valuation
- BofA Global Fund Manager Survey — October 2026 results
- AAII Investor Sentiment Survey — week ending 21 October 2026
- Shiller PE (CAPE) — multpl.com
- Buffett Indicator — GuruFocus market valuations
- Buffett Indicator — GuruFocus USA market-cap-to-GDP series
- CNN Fear & Greed Index
- CNN Fear & Greed reading, 22 October 2026 — The Mortgage Reports
- S&P 500 stocks above 200-day average — MacroMicro
- S&P 500 stocks above 200-day average (S5TH) — Investing.com
Stress & fiscal
- OFR Financial Stress Index
- CBO Monthly Budget Review — September 2026
- American Action Forum — FY 2026 deficit totaled $2 trillion
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow
Retrieved 23 October 2026. CNN's Fear & Greed page (HTTP 451), aaii.com and GuruFocus block automated access; the Fear & Greed, AAII, Buffett Indicator, breadth and BofA readings were taken from published secondary reports of the same figures, and the GDPNow estimate was read from the FRED GDPNOW series. The OFR index came from its own CSV download, and the CAPE from multpl.com's Oct 22 close. No row was left unretrieved this run, but the Fear & Greed and breadth rows rest on sources that disagree by several points, as footnoted above.
